BALOut
Lamar Jackson ruled out
Misses the game against the Falcons (ankle). That costs the Ravens 5.7 points in the model.
Thu Sat out → Fri Sat outBAL @ ATL →
The model picked 8 of 15 winners, 1 fewer than the market. One week is far too few games to show an edge, so read this as a progress report.
The model's most confident pick, its best chance of an upset, the tightest game and where it disagrees most with the market.
The model's most confident pick, over the Eagles. The market has it at 76%.
PHI @ JAX · Final 17–19✓ Landed Upset watch51%The market makes the Browns the underdog at 45%. The model gives them 51%, so it picks the upset.
CLE @ NYJ · Final 12–17Favourite won Closest call50%As near to a coin flip as the week gets. The model leans to the Giants by 0.0.
NYG @ WAS · Final 27–27 Biggest split with the market4.9Model: Falcons −7.9. Market: Falcons −3.
BAL @ ATL · Final 30–23Market closerWin chance for each side, the model's score and the market line. Finished games show the final score. Tap a game for its full breakdown.
The Buccaneers are missing more players this week. The Cowboys are at home. The bookies are more confident (81% there).
The Jaguars have played better this season. The Eagles are missing more players this week. The bookies see it about the same (76%).
The Bears have played better this season. The Packers are missing more players this week. The model is more confident than the bookies (54% there).
The Bengals have played better this season. The Bengals were the stronger team last season. The bookies are more confident (74% there).
The Patriots were the stronger team last season. The Patriots are at home. The bookies see it about the same (63%).
The Vikings have played better this season. The Vikings were the stronger team last season. The bookies see it about the same (54%).
The Browns were the stronger team last season. The Browns have played better this season. The bookies have this the other way: they favour the Jets (55%).
The Steelers are at home. The Colts are missing more players this week. The bookies see it about the same (57%).
The Texans were the stronger team last season. The Texans have the better quarterback. The bookies are more confident (74% there).
The Giants have played better this season. The Giants were the stronger team last season. The bookies have this the other way: they favour the Commanders (62%).
The Broncos have played better this season. The Chargers are missing more players this week. The bookies are more confident (63% there).
The Lions were the stronger team last season. The Lions have the better quarterback. The bookies are more confident (69% there).
The Seahawks were the stronger team last season. The Seahawks are at home. The bookies see it about the same (59%).
The Ravens are missing more players this week. The Falcons are at home. The model is more confident than the bookies (61% there).
The Rams are at home. The Rams were the stronger team last season. The bookies are more confident (62% there).
Times are Brisbane (AEST). The bar splits at each side's chance of winning, in team colours, away side on the left.
The model's yards for each player next to his average this season, biggest differences first. That gap is where the model and a bookie's line are most likely to disagree. Type the bookie's line to see the model's chance of the over and the under.
Regular starters with three or more games this season (at least 20 rushing or receiving yards a game, or 120 passing), in games still to play. Sorted by the gap measured against how much that player's yards usually swing. The model's yardage numbers were tested on 2022 to 2025 seasons against what players actually did, but not yet against bookmakers' lines, so treat a big gap as a reason to look, not a sure thing.
Winning margin for the home side, in points. The further apart the two dots, the more the model disagreed with the market. Widest gaps first.
Combinations priced by the model. The fair price is the odds that would break even if the model is right; a bookmaker will offer less.
Longer odds than a single bet, and every extra leg is another chance to lose.
These are the games where the model and market disagree. The market is usually the better judge, so the Prediction Log is the test of whether this is an edge or noise.
Touchdown scoring is high-variance. Treat as entertainment, not a strategy.
Every extra leg multiplies the chance of losing, and a bookmaker's margin is built into each leg. These are probabilities from a model, not tips. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, Gambling Help is on 1800 858 858.
Points of margin each absence cost his team this week.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available. Questionable counts as 50%, 65% or 75% depending on Friday practice, from how often such players took the field in 2023–25. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, with the price that would be fair.
Back-tested on the 2025 season: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%.
Games where the model's total differs most from the posted line, with the points actually scored.
On average the model projects 1.0 points a game above the market. Totals use team statistics only, so they do not drop when a quarterback is ruled out.
Ranked best to worst going into this week. 50 is an average team, and each point of rating is worth about a fifth of a point on the scoreboard. Ratings update with this week’s results when the next week is built. Arrows show the move since last week. Tap a team for its page.
Player ratings blend this season with 2025 and 2024. The weight at each position was set by testing how well the first three weeks plus earlier years predicted the rest of 2024 and 2025.
| Position | Weight on past seasons | Error cut, old weights | Error cut, now |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 0.25 | about 0% | about 0% |
| WR | 0.50 | about 0% | about 0% |
| TE | 0.25 | about 0% | about 0% |
| EDGE | 1.00 | 22% | 22% |
| DT | 1.00 | 15% | 15% |
| LB | 1.50 | 12% | 16% |
| CB | 0.50 | about 0% | about 0% |
| S | 1.50 | 15% | 16% |
History is predictive for pass rushers, interior linemen, linebackers and safeties. For running backs, receivers, tight ends and corners last year adds almost nothing, so this season's form leads. Team ratings carry over 45% of 2025's margin, weighted like eight games of 2026 data.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Cowboys by about 6 with 51 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
43% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys chance of winning | 67% | 81% | Lost |
| Cowboys winning margin | 5.8 | 9.5 | -8 |
| Total points | 51.4 | 49.5 | 40 |
The model is 3.7 points more on the Buccaneers. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Indoors, so wind and rain do not come into it.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairCowboys to win + Javonte Williams anytime TD | 44% 41% if independent | $2.28 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairCowboys to win + CeeDee Lamb anytime TD | 35% 32% if independent | $2.83 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioCowboys to win + Javonte Williams anytime TD + CeeDee Lamb anytime TD | 24% 20% if independent | $4.21 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioCowboys to win + Over 49.5 points + Javonte Williams anytime TD | 24% 20% if independent | $4.24 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherBuccaneers +9.5 + Over 49.5 points + Bucky Irving anytime TD | 12% 8.7% if independent | $8.33 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 49.5 points + Emeka Egbuka anytime TD + Javonte Williams anytime TD | 10% 7.7% if independent | $9.67 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Strong pick Picks the model rated 70 to 80% won 74% of 265 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Jaguars by about 10 with 41 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
37% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars chance of winning | 77% | 76% | Won |
| Jaguars winning margin | 10.1 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Total points | 41.2 | 41.5 | 36 |
The model is 2.6 points more on the Jaguars. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairJaguars to win + Over 41.5 points | 39% 39% if independent | $2.58 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairJaguars to win + Under 41.5 points | 38% 38% if independent | $2.62 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioJaguars to win + Over 41.5 points + Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD | 18% 14% if independent | $5.69 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioJaguars to win + Over 41.5 points + Parker Washington anytime TD | 13% 11% if independent | $7.50 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherEagles +7.5 + Over 41.5 points + Jalen Hurts anytime TD | 11% 7.2% if independent | $9.11 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherJaguars −7.5 + Over 41.5 points + Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD | 12% 9.2% if independent | $8.34 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Bears by about 5 with 46 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
45% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers chance of winning | 37% | 46% | Won |
| Packers winning margin | -4.6 | -1.5 | 24 |
| Total points | 45.8 | 46.5 | 38 |
The model is 3.1 points more on the Bears. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBears to win + D'Andre Swift anytime TD | 36% 32% if independent | $2.79 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBears to win + Over 46.5 points | 32% 32% if independent | $3.15 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBears to win + Over 46.5 points + D'Andre Swift anytime TD | 20% 16% if independent | $4.99 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBears −1.5 + Over 46.5 points + D'Andre Swift anytime TD | 16% 13% if independent | $6.19 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherPackers +1.5 + Over 46.5 points + Christian Watson anytime TD | 11% 7.5% if independent | $9.19 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherBears to win + D'Andre Swift anytime TD + Luther Burden III anytime TD | 11% 8.4% if independent | $8.87 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Bengals by about 4 with 45 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
45% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins chance of winning | 38% | 26% | Lost |
| Dolphins winning margin | -4.1 | -7.0 | -7 |
| Total points | 45.5 | 43.5 | 55 |
The model is 2.9 points more on the Dolphins. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBengals to win + Under 43.5 points | 31% 31% if independent | $3.19 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairBengals to win + Over 43.5 points | 31% 31% if independent | $3.25 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBengals to win + Over 43.5 points + Chase Brown anytime TD | 17% 13% if independent | $5.93 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBengals −7 + Over 43.5 points + Chase Brown anytime TD | 14% 11% if independent | $7.20 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherDolphins to win + Ollie Gordon II anytime TD | 13% 10% if independent | $7.78 |
| Legs that move togetherDolphins +7 + Ollie Gordon II anytime TD | 16% 13% if independent | $6.13 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Patriots by about 5 with 44 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
45% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots chance of winning | 64% | 63% | Won |
| Patriots winning margin | 4.8 | 3.5 | 28 |
| Total points | 44.2 | 45.5 | 62 |
The model is 1.3 points more on the Patriots. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairPatriots to win + Under 45.5 points | 32% 32% if independent | $3.13 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairPatriots to win + Over 45.5 points | 32% 32% if independent | $3.16 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioPatriots to win + Over 45.5 points + TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD | 15% 12% if independent | $6.58 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioPatriots −3.5 + Over 45.5 points + TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD | 12% 9.2% if independent | $8.19 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherRaiders +3.5 + Over 45.5 points + Brock Bowers anytime TD | 12% 8.7% if independent | $8.28 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherPatriots to win + Over 45.5 points + Romeo Doubs anytime TD | 11% 8.3% if independent | $9.13 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Vikings by about 3 with 43 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
46% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints chance of winning | 42% | 46% | Lost |
| Saints winning margin | -2.6 | -2.5 | -10 |
| Total points | 43.4 | 41.5 | 36 |
The model is in line with the market. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Indoors, so wind and rain do not come into it.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairVikings to win + Under 41.5 points | 29% 29% if independent | $3.46 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairVikings to win + Over 41.5 points | 29% 29% if independent | $3.50 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioVikings to win + Over 41.5 points + Aaron Jones anytime TD | 14% 10% if independent | $7.39 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioVikings −2.5 + Over 41.5 points + Aaron Jones anytime TD | 12% 8.8% if independent | $8.40 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherSaints to win + Over 41.5 points + Chris Olave anytime TD | 10% 7.2% if independent | $9.66 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherSaints +2.5 + Over 41.5 points + Chris Olave anytime TD | 12% 8.6% if independent | $8.41 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Browns by about 0 with 40 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
47% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets chance of winning | 49% | 55% | Won |
| Jets winning margin | -0.4 | 2.5 | 5 |
| Total points | 39.5 | 39.5 | 29 |
The model is 2.9 points more on the Browns. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBrowns to win + Under 39.5 points | 26% 26% if independent | $3.86 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBrowns +2.5 + Under 39.5 points | 25% 25% if independent | $3.95 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBrowns to win + Over 39.5 points + Quinshon Judkins anytime TD | 12% 8.3% if independent | $8.51 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioJets −2.5 + Over 39.5 points + Garrett Wilson anytime TD | 12% 8.1% if independent | $8.54 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherJets to win + Over 39.5 points + Garrett Wilson anytime TD | 11% 7.9% if independent | $8.76 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherBrowns +2.5 + Over 39.5 points + Quinshon Judkins anytime TD | 11% 8.0% if independent | $8.71 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Steelers by about 1 with 43 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
47% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers chance of winning | 53% | 57% | Won |
| Steelers winning margin | 1.1 | 3.0 | 12 |
| Total points | 42.7 | 43.5 | 56 |
The model is 1.9 points more on the Colts. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairColts +3 + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD | 34% 29% if independent | $2.98 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairOver 43.5 points + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD | 33% 29% if independent | $3.00 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioColts +3 + Over 43.5 points + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD | 19% 14% if independent | $5.40 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioColts to win + Over 43.5 points + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD | 17% 13% if independent | $5.75 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherColts to win + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD + Tyler Warren anytime TD | 12% 7.8% if independent | $8.46 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 43.5 points + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD + Tyler Warren anytime TD | 12% 8.3% if independent | $8.10 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Texans by about 5 with 39 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
44% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans chance of winning | 35% | 26% | Lost |
| Titans winning margin | -5.3 | -7.0 | -23 |
| Total points | 38.6 | 37.5 | 29 |
The model is 1.7 points more on the Titans. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairTexans to win + Under 37.5 points | 33% 33% if independent | $3.04 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairTexans to win + Over 37.5 points | 33% 33% if independent | $3.07 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioTexans to win + Over 37.5 points + David Montgomery anytime TD | 14% 11% if independent | $6.93 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioTexans to win + Over 37.5 points + Nico Collins anytime TD | 14% 11% if independent | $7.05 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherTexans −7 + Over 37.5 points + David Montgomery anytime TD | 12% 8.3% if independent | $8.65 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherTexans −7 + Over 37.5 points + Nico Collins anytime TD | 11% 8.2% if independent | $8.83 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Giants by about 0 with 42 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
47% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders chance of winning | 50% | 62% | Lost |
| Commanders winning margin | -0.0 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Total points | 42.3 | 41.5 | 54 |
The model is 3.5 points more on the Giants. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairCommanders −3.5 + Under 41.5 points | 25% 25% if independent | $3.95 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairCommanders to win + Under 41.5 points | 25% 25% if independent | $3.96 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioGiants to win + Over 41.5 points + Cam Skattebo anytime TD | 13% 9.4% if independent | $7.67 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioGiants +3.5 + Over 41.5 points + Cam Skattebo anytime TD | 13% 9.4% if independent | $7.67 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherCommanders −3.5 + Over 41.5 points + Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime TD | 11% 7.7% if independent | $9.21 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherCommanders to win + Over 41.5 points + Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime TD | 11% 7.7% if independent | $9.22 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Broncos by about 3 with 46 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
46% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers chance of winning | 41% | 37% | Lost |
| Chargers winning margin | -3.0 | -3.5 | -6 |
| Total points | 45.9 | 41.5 | 40 |
The model is in line with the market. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Indoors, so wind and rain do not come into it.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairBroncos to win + Under 41.5 points | 30% 30% if independent | $3.38 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBroncos to win + Over 41.5 points | 30% 30% if independent | $3.38 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioChargers +3.5 + Over 41.5 points + Omarion Hampton anytime TD | 13% 9.8% if independent | $7.41 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBroncos to win + Over 41.5 points + J.K. Dobbins anytime TD | 13% 10% if independent | $7.58 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherChargers to win + Over 41.5 points + Omarion Hampton anytime TD | 11% 8.1% if independent | $8.80 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherBroncos −3.5 + Over 41.5 points + J.K. Dobbins anytime TD | 11% 8.6% if independent | $8.71 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Lions by about 4 with 55 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
45% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals chance of winning | 38% | 31% | Lost |
| Cardinals winning margin | -4.2 | -5.5 | -24 |
| Total points | 54.8 | 54.5 | 66 |
The model is 1.3 points more on the Cardinals. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Indoors, so wind and rain do not come into it.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairLions to win + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD | 47% 44% if independent | $2.11 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairLions −5.5 + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD | 39% 35% if independent | $2.58 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioLions to win + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD + Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD | 28% 23% if independent | $3.63 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely trioLions to win + Over 54.5 points + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD | 26% 22% if independent | $3.90 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherCardinals +5.5 + Jeremiyah Love anytime TD + Michael Wilson anytime TD | 10% 7.3% if independent | $9.72 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherCardinals +5.5 + Trey McBride anytime TD + Jeremiyah Love anytime TD | 12% 8.8% if independent | $8.16 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Seahawks by about 2 with 48 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
46% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks chance of winning | 57% | 59% | Lost |
| Seahawks winning margin | 2.4 | 3.0 | -3 |
| Total points | 48.5 | 45.5 | 61 |
The model is in line with the market. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairSeahawks to win + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD | 30% 26% if independent | $3.33 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pair49ers +3 + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD | 29% 25% if independent | $3.43 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioSeahawks to win + Over 45.5 points + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD | 17% 13% if independent | $5.91 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely trio49ers +3 + Over 45.5 points + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD | 16% 13% if independent | $6.14 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move together49ers to win + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD + George Kittle anytime TD | 10% 6.9% if independent | $9.79 |
| ✓ LandedLegs that move together49ers +3 + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD + Mike Evans anytime TD | 11% 7.3% if independent | $9.49 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Strong pick Picks the model rated 70 to 80% won 74% of 265 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Falcons by about 8 with 48 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
41% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons chance of winning | 72% | 61% | Lost |
| Falcons winning margin | 7.9 | 3.0 | -7 |
| Total points | 48.4 | 43.5 | 53 |
The model is 4.9 points more on the Falcons. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Indoors, so wind and rain do not come into it.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairFalcons to win + Bijan Robinson anytime TD | 48% 45% if independent | $2.07 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairFalcons to win + Under 43.5 points | 36% 36% if independent | $2.77 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioFalcons to win + Over 43.5 points + Bijan Robinson anytime TD | 26% 22% if independent | $3.82 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioFalcons to win + Derrick Henry anytime TD + Bijan Robinson anytime TD | 24% 25% if independent | $4.15 |
| ✓ LandedLegs that move togetherRavens to win + Over 43.5 points + Derrick Henry anytime TD | 11% 7.7% if independent | $9.29 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 43.5 points + Derrick Henry anytime TD + Brian Robinson anytime TD | 13% 9.8% if independent | $7.63 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Rams by about 2 with 53 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
47% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams chance of winning | 56% | 62% | Lost |
| Rams winning margin | 2.2 | 3.5 | -3 |
| Total points | 52.8 | 54.5 | 71 |
The model is 1.3 points more on the Bills. Treat a gap as a prompt to check team news, not as an edge: across 3,663 back-tested games since 2012, the side the model favoured against the spread covered 49% of the time, no better than a coin.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 4 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Indoors, so wind and rain do not come into it.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 4 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 38,722 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 25 rushing and 23 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairRams to win + Kyren Williams anytime TD | 35% 31% if independent | $2.87 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairOver 54.5 points + Kyren Williams anytime TD | 31% 28% if independent | $3.19 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioRams to win + Over 54.5 points + Kyren Williams anytime TD | 19% 16% if independent | $5.19 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioRams to win + Kyren Williams anytime TD + Puka Nacua anytime TD | 19% 15% if independent | $5.20 |
| ✓ LandedLegs that move togetherBills to win + James Cook anytime TD + Josh Allen anytime TD | 15% 11% if independent | $6.71 |
| ✓ LandedLegs that move togetherBills +3.5 + James Cook anytime TD + Josh Allen anytime TD | 17% 12% if independent | $6.02 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
The rest of the schedule played out 20,000 times from today's team ratings. The 49ers reach the playoffs most often, in 95% of those seasons.
The playoff field the 20,000 simulated seasons point to most often, and how often each team goes all the way. Every simulated season plays out the playoffs too: 2 v 7, 3 v 6, 4 v 5, then the top seed meets the lowest seed left.
The Jaguars would have the bye.
The 49ers would have the bye.
Seeds use records only; the league's tie-breakers are not modelled. Playoff games use each simulated season's ratings and home field for the higher seed; the Super Bowl is neutral.
Projected wins and the share of simulated seasons in which each team makes the playoffs or wins its division. Tap a team for its remaining games.
Seven teams from each conference qualify: four division winners and three wild cards. Ties on wins are split at random because the league's tie-breakers are not modelled. Ratings are allowed to be wrong by about 4 points a game in either direction, an assumption that has not been back-tested. Standings include Week 5; ratings are refreshed with those games when the next week is built.
The biggest moves in the model's power rank since last week, after Week 4's results and this week's injuries.
The average rating of each team's opponents, in points a game. Bars to the right mean tougher opponents.
Opponent ratings are today's, without short-term injuries, and do not adjust for home or away.
Pick any two teams and a venue to see who the ratings favour. It uses season ratings only, without this week's injury report.
Jaguars by 1.9, with 1.8 points of that from playing at home.
92 players were ruled out this week and 82 went in as questionable. The Ravens took the biggest hit from this week's report, 7.6 points of margin in the model.
The absences that moved the model most, the biggest names carrying a questionable tag, and the best news of the week. Written from the official reports, not from news articles.
Misses the game against the Falcons (ankle). That costs the Ravens 5.7 points in the model.
Misses the game against the Cowboys (thumb). That costs the Buccaneers 2.4 points in the model.
Misses the game against the Giants (hamstring). That costs the Commanders 1.3 points in the model.
Misses the game against the Giants (illness). That costs the Commanders 1.3 points in the model.
Listed (groin) after he practised in full on Friday. The model gave him a 70% chance of playing, which took 0.5 points off the Bengals.
Listed (hamstring) after he was limited on Friday. The model gave him a 60% chance of playing, which took 0.6 points off the Commanders.
Was limited on Thursday (ribs), was limited on Friday and carries no game status. The model rates him worth 0.9 points to the 49ers.
Did not practise on Thursday (ankle), did not practise on Friday and carries no game status. The model rates him worth 0.7 points to the Chargers.
Was limited on Thursday (hamstring), was limited on Friday and carries no game status. The model rates him worth 0.6 points to the Jaguars.
Players whose practice work changed between Thursday and the final report, ordered by how much the model values them.
None this week.
None this week.
Questionable players in finished games who then appeared in the box score, against the chance of playing the model assumed.
The marker is the model's assumed chance, measured on 2023–25 snap counts. A player counts as having played here only if he recorded a statistic, so backups who took a few snaps are missed and the real rates are somewhat higher. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are left out because they do not record statistics. One week is too few players to judge the assumption.
Every club ordered by the points its injuries cost this week. The solid bar is this week's report and the lighter bar is players on injured reserve. Tap a team for its list.
Points are the model's cost at kick-off: the drop to the replacement multiplied by the chance the player misses. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
Every player rated 1 to 99: his place among the league's regular players at his position, so a 90 is as rare at corner as at receiver. Under it, the model's own figure: points a game he is worth over a replacement-level player.
Top 10 of the 32 ranked.
Top 10 of the 64 ranked.
Top 10 of the 130 ranked.
Top 10 of the 64 ranked.
Top 10 of the 100 ranked.
Top 10 of the 101 ranked.
Top 10 of the 99 ranked.
Top 10 of the 126 ranked.
Top 10 of the 106 ranked.
One page for every club: where it ranks, what it does well and badly, who its best players are, who is hurt and what is left on its schedule.
Record, the model's power rank with its move since last week, and the chance of making the playoffs. On a bye this week: Panthers and Chiefs.
Every team on the measures that matter most. Ranks are 1st (best) to 32nd; efficiency is adjusted for opponents. Tap a heading to sort, or a team to open its page.
| Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAXJaguars | 1st | 6th | 7th | 26.0 | 13.3 | 8th | 5th | 6th | 7th | +1.5 |
| SEASeahawks | 2nd | 15th | 13th | 26.3 | 18.3 | 10th | 26th | 7th | 3rd | +0.5 |
| SF49ers | 3rd | 1st | 26th | 30.5 | 16.0 | 1st | 11th | 18th | 16th | +0.3 |
| LARams | 4th | 18th | 2nd | 21.3 | 20.8 | 18th | 16th | 4th | 10th | −1.3 |
| CHIBears | 5th | 4th | 9th | 28.0 | 16.3 | 5th | 10th | 2nd | 27th | +0.0 |
| BUFBills | 6th | 5th | 31st | 31.8 | 26.8 | 4th | 4th | 28th | 22nd | −0.5 |
| KCChiefs | 7th | 3rd | 21st | 29.5 | 19.3 | 11th | 3rd | 11th | 8th | +1.0 |
| NEPatriots | 8th | 19th | 6th | 16.3 | 19.3 | 20th | 24th | 5th | 30th | −1.3 |
| DENBroncos | 9th | 11th | 4th | 18.5 | 23.5 | 22nd | 15th | 13th | 31st | +0.0 |
| DETLions | 10th | 8th | 30th | 29.8 | 31.8 | 3rd | 17th | 30th | 29th | +0.8 |
| MINVikings | 11th | 27th | 1st | 21.5 | 12.8 | 24th | 19th | 1st | 2nd | +1.3 |
| ATLFalcons | 12th | 22nd | 10th | 24.0 | 23.0 | 32nd | 2nd | 12th | 1st | −1.3 |
| HOUTexans | 13th | 28th | 14th | 21.0 | 27.3 | 15th | 30th | 25th | 12th | +0.3 |
| CINBengals | 14th | 7th | 19th | 24.3 | 21.3 | 14th | 18th | 8th | 17th | +0.3 |
| INDColts | 15th | 23rd | 12th | 25.5 | 26.0 | 31st | 1st | 20th | 23rd | −1.5 |
| CARPanthers | 16th | 10th | 8th | 30.3 | 27.3 | 9th | 21st | 19th | 18th | +0.8 |
| DALCowboys | 17th | 2nd | 32nd | 27.6 | 27.2 | 6th | 9th | 32nd | 20th | −0.4 |
| PITSteelers | 18th | 20th | 18th | 19.3 | 21.8 | 27th | 7th | 15th | 19th | +0.3 |
| LVRaiders | 19th | 17th | 3rd | 28.8 | 21.0 | 7th | 29th | 3rd | 6th | +1.3 |
| GBPackers | 20th | 13th | 29th | 18.3 | 26.3 | 16th | 32nd | 24th | 24th | −0.5 |
| NOSaints | 21st | 16th | 28th | 26.3 | 32.0 | 19th | 14th | 27th | 32nd | −1.5 |
| LACChargers | 22nd | 32nd | 5th | 16.8 | 26.5 | 29th | 25th | 16th | 13th | −0.5 |
| CLEBrowns | 23rd | 12th | 22nd | 20.3 | 23.8 | 12th | 31st | 14th | 25th | +0.0 |
| PHIEagles | 24th | 26th | 25th | 18.8 | 23.3 | 26th | 20th | 22nd | 28th | −0.8 |
| ARICardinals | 25th | 14th | 27th | 21.8 | 29.3 | 23rd | 13th | 31st | 4th | +0.5 |
| TBBuccaneers | 26th | 31st | 11th | 20.0 | 22.4 | 30th | 6th | 9th | 5th | −0.6 |
| NYGGiants | 27th | 30th | 17th | 20.5 | 19.8 | 17th | 22nd | 17th | 21st | +0.5 |
| BALRavens | 28th | 9th | 15th | 29.0 | 24.0 | 2nd | 8th | 10th | 26th | +0.8 |
| MIADolphins | 29th | 24th | 23rd | 11.5 | 25.3 | 28th | 28th | 29th | 9th | −0.5 |
| NYJJets | 30th | 21st | 16th | 19.0 | 21.0 | 13th | 27th | 23rd | 11th | +0.5 |
| TENTitans | 31st | 29th | 24th | 13.8 | 20.8 | 25th | 12th | 26th | 14th | −0.3 |
| WASCommanders | 32nd | 25th | 20th | 22.0 | 30.5 | 21st | 23rd | 21st | 15th | +0.8 |
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
25th of 32 this week. Last week the Cardinals ranked 26th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Cardinals' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Cardinals player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Cardinals 0.8 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 6th hardest in the league; what is left is the 6th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
12th of 32 this week. Last week the Falcons ranked 19th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Falcons' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Falcons player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Falcons 0.1 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 19th hardest in the league; what is left is the 14th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
28th of 32 this week. Last week the Ravens ranked 12th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Ravens' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Ravens player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Ravens 7.6 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 29th hardest in the league; what is left is the 18th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 17%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
6th of 32 this week. Last week the Bills ranked 3rd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Bills' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Bills player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Bills 0.1 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 4th hardest in the league; what is left is the 24th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 17%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
16th of 32 this week. Last week the Panthers ranked 20th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Panthers' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Panthers player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Panthers 0.7 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 11th hardest in the league; what is left is the 16th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
5th of 32 this week. Last week the Bears ranked 7th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Bears' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Bears player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Bears 0.0 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 28th hardest in the league; what is left is the 3rd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 6%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
14th of 32 this week. Last week the Bengals ranked 14th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Bengals' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Bengals player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Bengals 1.1 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 17th hardest in the league; what is left is the 29th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 4%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
23rd of 32 this week. Last week the Browns ranked 24th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Browns' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Browns player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Browns 0.3 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 23rd hardest in the league; what is left is the 25th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
17th of 32 this week. Last week the Cowboys ranked 18th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Cowboys' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Cowboys player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Cowboys 0.6 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 27th hardest in the league; what is left is the 21st hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
9th of 32 this week. Last week the Broncos ranked 9th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Broncos' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Broncos player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Broncos 1.1 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 1st hardest in the league; what is left is the 22nd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 5%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
10th of 32 this week. Last week the Lions ranked 10th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Lions' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Lions player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Lions 0.5 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 30th hardest in the league; what is left is the 23rd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 5%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
20th of 32 this week. Last week the Packers ranked 22nd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Packers' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Packers player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Packers 1.1 points this week.
And 3 more.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 16th hardest in the league; what is left is the 2nd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
13th of 32 this week. Last week the Texans ranked 13th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Texans' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Texans player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Texans 0.4 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 18th hardest in the league; what is left is the 27th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
15th of 32 this week. Last week the Colts ranked 17th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Colts' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Colts player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Colts 0.9 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 12th hardest in the league; what is left is the 30th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
1st of 32 this week. Last week the Jaguars ranked 2nd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Jaguars' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Jaguars player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Jaguars 0.1 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 14th hardest in the league; what is left is the 32nd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 27%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
7th of 32 this week. Last week the Chiefs ranked 4th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Chiefs' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Chiefs player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
A clean report this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 24th hardest in the league; what is left is the 5th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 18%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
4th of 32 this week. Last week the Rams ranked 5th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Rams' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Rams player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Rams 1.0 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 9th hardest in the league; what is left is the 17th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 4%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
22nd of 32 this week. Last week the Chargers ranked 23rd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Chargers' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Chargers player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Chargers 2.1 points this week.
And 4 more.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 7th hardest in the league; what is left is the 1st hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
19th of 32 this week. Last week the Raiders ranked 15th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Raiders' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Raiders player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Raiders 0.3 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 22nd hardest in the league; what is left is the 9th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
29th of 32 this week. Last week the Dolphins ranked 32nd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Dolphins' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Dolphins player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Dolphins 1.1 points this week.
And 1 more.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 3rd hardest in the league; what is left is the 8th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
11th of 32 this week. Last week the Vikings ranked 8th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Vikings' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Vikings player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Vikings 1.3 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 26th hardest in the league; what is left is the 7th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 23%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
8th of 32 this week. Last week the Patriots ranked 11th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Patriots' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Patriots player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Patriots 2.4 points this week.
And 6 more.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 2nd hardest in the league; what is left is the 26th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 6%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
21st of 32 this week. Last week the Saints ranked 21st.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Saints' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Saints player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Saints 0.9 points this week.
And 2 more.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 5th hardest in the league; what is left is the 31st hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
27th of 32 this week. Last week the Giants ranked 31st.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Giants' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Giants player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Giants 2.9 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 31st hardest in the league; what is left is the 13th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
30th of 32 this week. Last week the Jets ranked 28th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Jets' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Jets player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Jets 0.1 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 25th hardest in the league; what is left is the 12th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
24th of 32 this week. Last week the Eagles ranked 27th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Eagles' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Eagles player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Eagles 1.7 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 8th hardest in the league; what is left is the 28th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
18th of 32 this week. Last week the Steelers ranked 16th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Steelers' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Steelers player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Steelers 0.5 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 13th hardest in the league; what is left is the 19th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 2%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
2nd of 32 this week. Last week the Seahawks ranked 1st.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Seahawks' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Seahawks player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Seahawks 0.0 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 15th hardest in the league; what is left is the 4th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 8%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
3rd of 32 this week. Last week the 49ers ranked 6th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The 49ers' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every 49ers player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the 49ers 1.1 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 10th hardest in the league; what is left is the 20th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 49%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
26th of 32 this week. Last week the Buccaneers ranked 25th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Buccaneers' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Buccaneers player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Buccaneers 2.4 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 20th hardest in the league; what is left is the 10th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
31st of 32 this week. Last week the Titans ranked 29th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Titans' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Titans player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Titans 0.2 points this week.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 32nd hardest in the league; what is left is the 11th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
32nd of 32 this week. Last week the Commanders ranked 30th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 4 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
Every measure with its league rank (1st is best) through 4 games. Efficiency is expected points added a play, adjusted for the opponents faced; green is top eight, red bottom eight.
The Commanders' best by player rating (1 to 99, comparable across positions), with league rank at the position.
Every Commanders player the model ranks: the starters and about one regular backup at each position, with league rank at the position. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are not rated.
Costing the Commanders 3.2 points this week.
And 1 more.
12 games left. The schedule so far was the 21st hardest in the league; what is left is the 15th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
17 of 30 winners so far, 1 behind the market. 30 games is far too few to prove an edge either way: a coin-flipper gets a record like this often. This page exists so the record is public, whatever it turns out to be.
Picks grouped by how confident the model was. The bar is how often those picks won; the marker is how often the model said they would.
A well-calibrated model has each bar ending at its marker. With this few games each group can be off by 20 points or more through luck alone.
The model's record each week against the market's. Open a past week to see every prediction as it stood, with the results.
| Week | Winners | Market | Against the spread | Totals | Brier, model v market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | 9 of 15 | 9 of 15 | 11 of 13 | 8 of 15 | 0.183 v 0.212 | Open Week 4 → |
| Week 5 | 8 of 15 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 14 | 7 of 15 | 0.245 v 0.239 | this week |
The picks that aged best and worst so far.
They won by 5. The model missed the margin by 0.1 points.
Week 4 · JAX 22, CIN 17 ✓The market had the Bengals as favourites. The model gave the Jaguars 67% and they won.
Week 4 · JAX 22, CIN 17 ✓The model's most confident pick that lost. The Ravens won by 7.
Week 5 · BAL 30, ATL 23 ✕The model had the Bears by 4.6. The game finished CHI 7, GB 31.
Week 5 · CHI 7, GB 31 ✕The model's pick and confidence, the final score, and whether the pick, its side of the spread and its side of the total were right.
| Game | Model pick | Chance | Final | Pick | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DAL | Cowboys by 5.8 | 67% | 24–16 | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ |
| PHI @ JAX | Jaguars by 10.1 | 77% | 17–19 | ✓ | ✕ | ✓ |
| CHI @ GB | Bears by 4.6 | 63% | 7–31 | ✕ | ✕ | ✓ |
| CIN @ MIA | Bengals by 4.1 | 62% | 31–24 | ✓ | push | ✓ |
| LV @ NE | Patriots by 4.8 | 64% | 17–45 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| MIN @ NO | Vikings by 2.6 | 58% | 23–13 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| CLE @ NYJ | Browns by 0.5 | 51% | 12–17 | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ |
| IND @ PIT | Steelers by 1.1 | 53% | 22–34 | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ |
| HOU @ TEN | Texans by 5.3 | 65% | 26–3 | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ |
| NYG @ WAS | Giants by 0.0 | 50% | 27–27 | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ |
| DEN @ LAC | Broncos by 3.0 | 59% | 23–17 | ✓ | ✕ | ✕ |
| DET @ ARI | Lions by 4.2 | 62% | 45–21 | ✓ | ✕ | ✓ |
| SF @ SEA | Seahawks by 2.4 | 57% | 32–29 | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ |
| BAL @ ATL | Falcons by 7.9 | 72% | 30–23 | ✕ | ✕ | ✓ |
| BUF @ LA | Rams by 2.2 | 56% | 37–34 | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ |
| Game | Model pick | Chance | Final | Pick | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND @ WAS | Colts by 5.8 | 70% | 30–13 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| TEN @ BAL | Ravens by 8.1 | 76% | 18–24 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| NE @ BUF | Bills by 5.4 | 69% | 29–26 | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ |
| NYJ @ CHI | Bears by 10.3 | 82% | 12–23 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| JAX @ CIN | Jaguars by 4.9 | 67% | 22–17 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| DAL @ HOU | Texans by 3.6 | 63% | 34–30 | ✕ | ✕ | ✓ |
| ARI @ NYG | Cardinals by 1.7 | 56% | 24–36 | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ |
| LA @ PHI | Rams by 7.0 | 73% | 24–20 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| GB @ TB | Buccaneers by 1.0 | 54% | 17–14 | ✕ | push | ✓ |
| MIA @ MIN | Vikings by 11.9 | 85% | 10–15 | ✓ | ✕ | ✓ |
| KC @ LV | Chiefs by 3.6 | 63% | 30–27 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| LAC @ SEA | Seahawks by 11.0 | 83% | 23–30 | ✓ | push | ✕ |
| DEN @ SF | 49ers by 4.7 | 66% | 14–24 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| DET @ CAR | Lions by 1.1 | 54% | 26–32 | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ |
| ATL @ NO | Saints by 1.7 | 56% | 45–24 | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ |
Predictions are fixed before kick-off from the final injury reports. "Spread" and "Total" compare the model's side with the market line at the time.
Every week from 2012 to 2025 replayed through the model, using only what was known at the time. Settings were tuned on 2012 to 2020 and judged on 2021 to 2025, seasons the tuning never saw.
| Held-out seasons 2021 to 2025, 1,359 games | Winners picked | Brier score | Margin miss | Model's side v the spread | Total-points miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model before the back-test | 62.8% | 0.2266 | 10.21 | 49.5% | 11.66 |
| Model after the changes | 64.7% | 0.2184 | 10.05 | 49.6% | 10.47 |
| Market closing line | 66.7% | 0.2117 | 9.75 | – | 10.31 |
| Average miss, lower is better | Before | After | Player-games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Touchdown scorers (Brier score) | 0.1598 | 0.1572 | 17,283 |
| Rushing yards | 25.02 | 24.42 | 3,761 |
| Receiving yards | 22.41 | 22.19 | 10,859 |
| Passing yards | 60.52 | 59.28 | 2,072 |
These are simulated results, not live picks. Every week was predicted using only games already played. The back-test covers the team model and the quarterback term; the full injury model could not be replayed, though a separate check supported its size. Lower is better for the Brier score and both miss columns.
Each week the assumptions are checked against the results. A setting only changes when several seasons of evidence move it, not on one week alone.