WASOut
Jayden Daniels ruled out
Misses the game against the Colts (elbow). That costs the Commanders 2.1 points in the model.
Thu Limited → Fri LimitedIND @ WAS →
The model picked 9 of 15 winners, the same as the market. One week is far too few games to show an edge, so read this as a progress report.
The model's most confident pick, its best chance of an upset, the tightest game and where it disagrees most with the market.
The model's most confident pick, over the Dolphins. The market has it at 81%.
MIA @ MIN · Final 10–15✓ Landed Upset watch67%The market makes the Jaguars the underdog at 44%. The model gives them 67%, so it picks the upset.
JAX @ CIN · Final 22–17✓ Upset landed Closest call51%As near to a coin flip as the week gets. The model leans to the Steelers by 0.2.
PIT @ CLE · Final 24–27 Biggest split with the market7.4Model: Jaguars by 4.9. Market: Bengals by 2.5.
JAX @ CIN · Final 22–17✓ Model closerWin chance for each side, the model's score and the market line. Finished games show the final score. Tap a game for its full breakdown.
Times are Brisbane (AEST). The bar splits at each side's chance of winning, in team colours, away side on the left.
Winning margin for the home side, in points. The further apart the two dots, the more the model disagreed with the market. Widest gaps first.
Combinations priced by the model. The fair price is the odds that would break even if the model is right; a bookmaker will offer less.
Longer odds than a single bet, and every extra leg is another chance to lose.
These are the games where the model and market disagree. The market is usually the better judge, so the Prediction Log is the test of whether this is an edge or noise.
Touchdown scoring is high-variance. Treat as entertainment, not a strategy.
Every extra leg multiplies the chance of losing, and a bookmaker's margin is built into each leg. These are probabilities from a model, not tips. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, Gambling Help is on 1800 858 858.
Points of margin each absence cost his team this week.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available. Questionable counts as 50%, 65% or 75% depending on Friday practice, from how often such players took the field in 2023–25. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, with the price that would be fair.
Back-tested on the 2025 season: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%.
Games where the model's total differs most from the posted line, with the points actually scored.
On average the model projects 1.2 points a game below the market. Totals use team statistics only, so they do not drop when a quarterback is ruled out.
Ranked best to worst going into this week. 50 is an average team, and each point of rating is worth about a fifth of a point on the scoreboard. Ratings update with this week’s results when the next week is built. Arrows show the move since last season's numbers. Tap a team for its page.
Player ratings blend this season with 2025 and 2024. The weight at each position was set by testing how well the first three weeks plus earlier years predicted the rest of 2024 and 2025.
| Position | Weight on past seasons | Error cut, old weights | Error cut, now |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 0.25 | about 0% | about 0% |
| WR | 0.50 | about 0% | about 0% |
| TE | 0.25 | about 0% | about 0% |
| EDGE | 1.00 | 22% | 22% |
| DT | 1.00 | 15% | 15% |
| LB | 1.50 | 12% | 16% |
| CB | 0.50 | about 0% | about 0% |
| S | 1.50 | 15% | 16% |
History is predictive for pass rushers, interior linemen, linebackers and safeties. For running backs, receivers, tight ends and corners last year adds almost nothing, so this season's form leads. Team ratings carry over 45% of 2025's margin, weighted like eight games of 2026 data.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Steelers by about 0 with 38 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
47% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns chance of winning | 49% | 43% | Won |
| Browns winning margin | -0.2 | -2.5 | 3 |
| Total points | 37.6 | 38.5 | 51 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 2.3 points more on the Browns. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Colts by about 6 with 50 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
49% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders chance of winning | 30% | 36% | Lost |
| Commanders winning margin | -5.8 | -4.5 | -17 |
| Total points | 49.8 | 46.5 | 43 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 1.3 points more on the Colts. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairColts to win + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD | 45% 42% if independent | $2.23 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairColts to win + Over 46.5 points | 42% 42% if independent | $2.40 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioColts to win + Over 46.5 points + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD | 29% 25% if independent | $3.44 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioColts −4.5 + Over 46.5 points + Jonathan Taylor anytime TD | 23% 20% if independent | $4.29 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherCommanders +4.5 + Over 46.5 points + Stefon Diggs anytime TD | 10% 7.4% if independent | $9.90 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherCommanders +4.5 + Over 46.5 points + Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime TD | 11% 8.0% if independent | $9.33 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Strong pick Picks the model rated 70 to 80% won 74% of 265 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Ravens by about 8 with 42 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
44% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens chance of winning | 76% | 84% | Won |
| Ravens winning margin | 8.1 | 11.5 | 6 |
| Total points | 41.8 | 41.5 | 42 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 3.4 points more on the Titans. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairRavens to win + Derrick Henry anytime TD | 45% 42% if independent | $2.20 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairRavens to win + Over 41.5 points | 39% 39% if independent | $2.58 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely trioRavens to win + Over 41.5 points + Derrick Henry anytime TD | 26% 22% if independent | $3.86 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioRavens to win + Under 41.5 points + Derrick Henry anytime TD | 19% 21% if independent | $5.14 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherRavens −11.5 + Over 41.5 points + Derrick Henry anytime TD | 14% 11% if independent | $7.33 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherRavens −11.5 + Derrick Henry anytime TD | 24% 21% if independent | $4.09 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Bills by about 5 with 46 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
50% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills chance of winning | 69% | 72% | Lost |
| Bills winning margin | 5.4 | 7.0 | -3 |
| Total points | 45.7 | 49.5 | 55 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 1.6 points more on the Patriots. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBills to win + Under 49.5 points | 42% 42% if independent | $2.38 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairPatriots +7 + Under 49.5 points | 34% 34% if independent | $2.93 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBills to win + Under 49.5 points + James Cook anytime TD | 18% 18% if independent | $5.71 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBills to win + Under 49.5 points + Josh Allen anytime TD | 16% 16% if independent | $6.40 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherPatriots +7 + Over 49.5 points + TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD | 10% 7.2% if independent | $9.96 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherBills −7 + James Cook anytime TD + Josh Allen anytime TD | 10% 7.3% if independent | $9.94 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Very strong Picks the model rated 80% or more won 80% of 138 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Bears by about 10 with 49 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
39% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears chance of winning | 82% | 62% | Won |
| Bears winning margin | 10.4 | 3.5 | 11 |
| Total points | 49.2 | 43.5 | 35 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 6.9 points more on the Bears. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBears to win + Over 43.5 points | 54% 54% if independent | $1.84 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBears −3.5 + Over 43.5 points | 48% 48% if independent | $2.07 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBears to win + Over 43.5 points + D'Andre Swift anytime TD | 26% 23% if independent | $3.81 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBears −3.5 + Over 43.5 points + D'Andre Swift anytime TD | 24% 20% if independent | $4.22 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherJets +3.5 + Garrett Wilson anytime TD | 11% 8.4% if independent | $9.14 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 43.5 points + Garrett Wilson anytime TD + D'Andre Swift anytime TD | 11% 8.6% if independent | $9.28 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Jaguars by about 5 with 42 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
51% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals chance of winning | 33% | 56% | Lost |
| Bengals winning margin | -4.9 | 2.5 | -5 |
| Total points | 42.5 | 51.5 | 39 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 7.4 points more on the Jaguars. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairJaguars +2.5 + Under 51.5 points | 56% 56% if independent | $1.77 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairJaguars to win + Under 51.5 points | 51% 51% if independent | $1.97 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioJaguars +2.5 + Under 51.5 points + Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD | 17% 17% if independent | $6.02 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioJaguars to win + Under 51.5 points + Bhayshul Tuten anytime TD | 15% 15% if independent | $6.58 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 51.5 points + Ja'Marr Chase anytime TD | 12% 8.5% if independent | $8.69 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 51.5 points + Chase Brown anytime TD | 11% 7.9% if independent | $9.36 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Texans by about 4 with 51 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
53% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans chance of winning | 63% | 58% | Lost |
| Texans winning margin | 3.6 | 3.0 | -4 |
| Total points | 50.8 | 48.5 | 64 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is in line with the market. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairTexans to win + Over 48.5 points | 36% 36% if independent | $2.79 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairTexans to win + David Montgomery anytime TD | 30% 28% if independent | $3.30 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioTexans to win + Over 48.5 points + David Montgomery anytime TD | 19% 16% if independent | $5.25 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioTexans −3 + Over 48.5 points + David Montgomery anytime TD | 16% 13% if independent | $6.20 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 48.5 points + David Montgomery anytime TD + Woody Marks anytime TD | 10% 7.6% if independent | $9.92 |
| ✓ LandedLegs that move togetherCowboys to win + Over 48.5 points + Javonte Williams anytime TD | 10% 7.7% if independent | $9.90 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Cardinals by about 2 with 51 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
55% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants chance of winning | 44% | 45% | Won |
| Giants winning margin | -1.7 | -2.5 | 12 |
| Total points | 50.8 | 44.5 | 60 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is in line with the market. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairCardinals to win + Over 44.5 points | 38% 38% if independent | $2.63 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairGiants +2.5 + Over 44.5 points | 36% 36% if independent | $2.74 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioGiants +2.5 + Over 44.5 points + Cam Skattebo anytime TD | 18% 14% if independent | $5.69 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioCardinals to win + Over 44.5 points + Trey McBride anytime TD | 17% 14% if independent | $5.86 |
| ✓ LandedLegs that move togetherGiants to win + Over 44.5 points + Malik Nabers anytime TD | 11% 8.6% if independent | $9.06 |
| Legs that move togetherGiants +2.5 + Over 44.5 points + Devin Singletary anytime TD | 12% 9.2% if independent | $8.50 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Strong pick Picks the model rated 70 to 80% won 74% of 265 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Rams by about 7 with 42 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
47% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles chance of winning | 27% | 38% | Lost |
| Eagles winning margin | -7.0 | -3.5 | -4 |
| Total points | 42.1 | 42.5 | 44 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 3.5 points more on the Rams. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairRams to win + Under 42.5 points | 38% 38% if independent | $2.66 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairRams to win + Over 42.5 points | 36% 35% if independent | $2.81 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely trioRams to win + Over 42.5 points + Kyren Williams anytime TD | 18% 15% if independent | $5.46 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioRams to win + Over 42.5 points + Davante Adams anytime TD | 16% 13% if independent | $6.27 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 42.5 points + Kyren Williams anytime TD + Davante Adams anytime TD | 10% 7.2% if independent | $9.81 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherEagles to win + Saquon Barkley anytime TD | 11% 8.4% if independent | $8.87 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Buccaneers by about 1 with 35 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
55% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers chance of winning | 54% | 41% | Lost |
| Buccaneers winning margin | 1.0 | -3.0 | -3 |
| Total points | 35.3 | 38.5 | 31 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 4.0 points more on the Buccaneers. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Most likely pairBuccaneers +3 + Under 38.5 points | 38% 38% if independent | $2.62 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairBuccaneers to win + Under 38.5 points | 32% 32% if independent | $3.12 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBuccaneers +3 + Under 38.5 points + Bucky Irving anytime TD | 12% 12% if independent | $8.46 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioBuccaneers +3 + Over 38.5 points + Bucky Irving anytime TD | 12% 8.1% if independent | $8.69 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 38.5 points + Christian Watson anytime TD | 15% 12% if independent | $6.48 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 38.5 points + Emeka Egbuka anytime TD | 13% 10% if independent | $7.53 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Very strong Picks the model rated 80% or more won 80% of 138 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Vikings by about 12 with 32 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
35% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings chance of winning | 85% | 81% | Won |
| Vikings winning margin | 11.9 | 10.0 | 5 |
| Total points | 32.5 | 38.5 | 25 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 1.9 points more on the Vikings. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairVikings to win + Under 38.5 points | 57% 57% if independent | $1.74 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairVikings −10 + Under 38.5 points | 38% 38% if independent | $2.60 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioVikings to win + Under 38.5 points + Aaron Jones anytime TD | 16% 17% if independent | $6.14 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioVikings to win + Under 38.5 points + Jauan Jennings anytime TD | 14% 15% if independent | $6.99 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherVikings to win + Over 38.5 points + Aaron Jones anytime TD | 11% 8.4% if independent | $9.00 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 38.5 points + Jordan Addison anytime TD | 11% 8.5% if independent | $9.19 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Chiefs by about 4 with 43 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
53% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders chance of winning | 37% | 34% | Lost |
| Raiders winning margin | -3.6 | -4.5 | -3 |
| Total points | 43.4 | 47.5 | 57 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is in line with the market. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairChiefs to win + Under 47.5 points | 39% 39% if independent | $2.54 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairRaiders +4.5 + Under 47.5 points | 33% 33% if independent | $3.06 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioChiefs to win + Under 47.5 points + Kenneth Walker III anytime TD | 15% 15% if independent | $6.62 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely trioChiefs to win + Over 47.5 points + Kenneth Walker III anytime TD | 12% 9.2% if independent | $8.26 |
| ✓ LandedLegs that move togetherOver 47.5 points + Brock Bowers anytime TD | 13% 10% if independent | $7.60 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 47.5 points + Ashton Jeanty anytime TD | 16% 12% if independent | $6.30 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Very strong Picks the model rated 80% or more won 80% of 138 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Seahawks by about 11 with 37 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
37% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks chance of winning | 83% | 76% | Won |
| Seahawks winning margin | 11.0 | 7.0 | 7 |
| Total points | 36.8 | 42.5 | 53 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 4.0 points more on the Seahawks. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairSeahawks to win + Under 42.5 points | 55% 55% if independent | $1.81 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairSeahawks −7 + Under 42.5 points | 43% 42% if independent | $2.35 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioSeahawks to win + Under 42.5 points + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD | 20% 21% if independent | $5.05 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioSeahawks −7 + Under 42.5 points + Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD | 16% 16% if independent | $6.20 |
| ✓ LandedLegs that move togetherOver 42.5 points + Omarion Hampton anytime TD | 14% 9.6% if independent | $7.15 |
| Legs that move togetherChargers +7 + Omarion Hampton anytime TD | 14% 11% if independent | $6.91 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Lean Picks the model rated 60 to 70% won 66% of 426 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the 49ers by about 5 with 44 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
51% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers chance of winning | 66% | 57% | Won |
| 49ers winning margin | 4.7 | 3.0 | 10 |
| Total points | 43.7 | 48.5 | 38 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 1.7 points more on the 49ers. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pair49ers to win + Under 48.5 points | 43% 43% if independent | $2.35 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely pair49ers −3 + Under 48.5 points | 36% 36% if independent | $2.79 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely trio49ers to win + Under 48.5 points + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD | 18% 18% if independent | $5.55 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely trio49ers −3 + Under 48.5 points + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD | 16% 15% if independent | $6.38 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move together49ers −3 + Over 48.5 points + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD | 11% 8.4% if independent | $9.00 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move together49ers to win + Over 48.5 points + Christian McCaffrey anytime TD | 13% 10.0% if independent | $7.72 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Lions by about 1 with 53 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
55% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers chance of winning | 46% | 37% | Won |
| Panthers winning margin | -1.1 | -3.5 | 6 |
| Total points | 52.9 | 51.5 | 58 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is 2.4 points more on the Panthers. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✓ LandedMost likely pairOver 51.5 points + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD | 36% 32% if independent | $2.78 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairLions to win + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD | 36% 32% if independent | $2.82 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioLions to win + Over 51.5 points + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD | 21% 17% if independent | $4.78 |
| ✓ LandedMost likely trioPanthers +3.5 + Over 51.5 points + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD | 20% 19% if independent | $5.10 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherLions −3.5 + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD + Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD | 14% 11% if independent | $7.06 |
| ✕ MissedLegs that move togetherOver 51.5 points + Jahmyr Gibbs anytime TD + Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD | 18% 14% if independent | $5.54 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
Toss-up Picks the model rated under 60% won 55% of 526 held-out games (2021 to 2025).
The model had the Saints by about 2 with 47 total points.
Each bar pushes the prediction toward one team. Read down to the total.
Team strength blends this season's results with a share of last season's, then injuries and home field are applied.
Every way the margin can land. The taller the curve, the more likely that result.
55% chance of a one-score game (8 points or fewer). NFL results land about 13 points either side of the predicted margin, so a blowout either way stays on the table.
Tap a player to rule him out or put him back in, and watch the prediction move. Useful when late team news breaks.
Each player's value is the points his team loses if he sits and his usual replacement plays. Offensive players change their own team's score; defenders change the opponent's.
Two independent opinions. Where they split is where to look harder.
| Model | Market | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints chance of winning | 56% | 55% | Lost |
| Saints winning margin | 1.7 | 2.5 | -21 |
| Total points | 46.9 | 47.5 | 69 |
The line on each bar is 50%, where the market sits. The model is in line with the market. A big gap is a prompt to check team news, not a bet.
Each square is one simulated game, placed by its winning margin. Play one, or a thousand, and watch the model's odds take shape.
How the game is likely to be played, and the conditions around it.
The marker is the league average. Tendencies rest on 3 games and are pulled toward the average. The shift for leading or trailing was measured on the 2025 season. These indicators are for context and do not yet feed the yardage numbers.
Travel is measured from the visiting team's home stadium. None of these factors change the prediction apart from home field.
Where each team ranks among the 32 on its 2026 statistics before this game. A strength is top eight in the league; a weakness is bottom eight.
Ranks rest on 3 games a team, so they can move quickly. They describe what has happened so far, not the model's prediction, which also weighs last season and injuries.
Chance each player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, and the price that would be fair for it.
If a bookmaker offers more than the fair price, the price is better than the model thinks it should be; most prices will be shorter because of the bookmaker's margin. Tested on 3,072 player-games from 2025: players rated 20–30% scored 26% of the time, those rated 40–50% scored 47%. Players ruled out are excluded and questionable players are flagged.
The bar covers the middle 80% of simulated games; the coloured mark is the midpoint. The dark line is what the player actually did. Wide bars are normal: yardage swings a lot from week to week.
Ranges come from testing these projections on 5,788 player-games in 2024 and 2025. The typical miss was 60 yards passing, 26 rushing and 24 receiving. Set your own over and under lines in the Parlay builder.
Combinations inside this game, priced from 60,000 simulated versions of it so that legs which move together are counted properly.
| Combination | Model chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairSaints to win + Under 47.5 points | 29% 29% if independent | $3.43 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely pairFalcons +2.5 + Under 47.5 points | 27% 27% if independent | $3.68 |
| Most likely trioFalcons +2.5 + Over 47.5 points + Bijan Robinson anytime TD | 15% 11% if independent | $6.66 |
| ✕ MissedMost likely trioSaints to win + Over 47.5 points + Bijan Robinson anytime TD | 13% 12% if independent | $7.76 |
| Legs that move togetherFalcons to win + Over 47.5 points + Bijan Robinson anytime TD | 13% 9.5% if independent | $7.90 |
| Legs that move togetherOver 47.5 points + Drake London anytime TD | 16% 13% if independent | $6.22 |
A win makes the over and big touchdown days more likely, so those legs reinforce each other. A favourite plus the under pull against each other. Bookmakers price same-game multis with their own margin, so what you are offered will be shorter than the fair price.
What each offence is expected to produce against the other defence. The stronger side in each row is in full colour.
Each figure is the league average plus that offence's own edge plus the opposing defence's edge, after pulling small samples toward the league average.
2026 season before this game, per game or per play.
Points per game each player is worth above a replacement, from pass rush, coverage, tackles for loss and production relative to teammates.
Active players only. Offensive linemen have no public statistics, so they are not rated here.
Points of margin lost this week from players on the injury report or injured reserve.
Out and Doubtful count as 0% available; Questionable counts as 50% to 75% depending on Friday practice. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
2026 results before this game, most recent last.
Regular-season games since 2022, most recent first.
The rest of the schedule played out 20,000 times from today's team ratings. The Jaguars reach the playoffs most often, in 93% of those seasons.
Projected wins and the share of simulated seasons in which each team makes the playoffs or wins its division. Tap a team for its remaining games.
Seven teams from each conference qualify: four division winners and three wild cards. Ties on wins are split at random because the league's tie-breakers are not modelled. Ratings are allowed to be wrong by about 4 points a game in either direction, an assumption that has not been back-tested. Standings include Week 4; ratings are refreshed with those games when the next week is built.
Where each team would rank on last season's numbers alone, against the model's rank today. Week-to-week movement starts once two weeks of ratings are on file.
The average rating of each team's opponents, in points a game. Bars to the right mean tougher opponents.
Opponent ratings are today's, without short-term injuries, and do not adjust for home or away.
Pick any two teams and a venue to see who the ratings favour. It uses season ratings only, without this week's injury report.
Jaguars by 1.8, with 1.8 points of that from playing at home.
73 players were ruled out this week and 63 went in as questionable. The Commanders took the biggest hit from this week's report, 4.0 points of margin in the model.
The absences that moved the model most, the biggest names carrying a questionable tag, and the best news of the week. Written from the official reports, not from news articles.
Misses the game against the Colts (elbow). That costs the Commanders 2.1 points in the model.
Misses the game against the Rams (hamstring). That costs the Eagles 1.4 points in the model.
Misses the game against the Colts (illness). That costs the Commanders 1.3 points in the model.
Misses the game against the Packers (thumb). That costs the Buccaneers 1.2 points in the model.
Listed (hamstring) after he was limited on Friday. The model gave him a 65% chance of playing, which took 0.6 points off the Commanders.
Listed (quadricep) after he was limited on Friday. The model gave him a 65% chance of playing, which took 0.4 points off the Panthers.
Was limited on Thursday (hip), practised in full on Friday and carries no game status. The model rates him worth 1.7 points to the Rams.
Was limited on Thursday (hamstring), practised in full on Friday and carries no game status. The model rates him worth 1.4 points to the Texans.
Was limited on Thursday (hamstring), was limited on Friday and carries no game status. The model rates him worth 0.8 points to the Commanders.
Players whose practice work changed between Thursday and the final report, ordered by how much the model values them.
Questionable players in finished games who then appeared in the box score, against the chance of playing the model assumed.
The marker is the model's assumed chance, measured on 2023–25 snap counts. A player counts as having played here only if he recorded a statistic, so backups who took a few snaps are missed and the real rates are somewhat higher. Offensive linemen, kickers and punters are left out because they do not record statistics. One week is too few players to judge the assumption.
Every club ordered by the points its injuries cost this week. The solid bar is this week's report and the lighter bar is players on injured reserve. Tap a team for its list.
Points are the model's cost at kick-off: the drop to the replacement multiplied by the chance the player misses. Players with no game status are treated as playing.
The model's own player ratings, position by position: the points a game each player is worth to his team over a replacement-level player.
Top 10 of the 32 ranked.
Top 10 of the 40 ranked.
Top 10 of the 40 ranked.
Top 10 of the 40 ranked.
Top 10 of the 40 ranked.
Top 10 of the 40 ranked.
Top 10 of the 40 ranked.
Top 10 of the 40 ranked.
Top 10 of the 40 ranked.
One page for every club: where it ranks, what it does well and badly, who its best players are, who is hurt and what is left on its schedule.
Record, the model's power rank with its move since last season's numbers, and the chance of making the playoffs.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
26th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Cardinals ranked 29th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Cardinals, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Cardinals 0.3 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 11th hardest in the league; what is left is the 1st hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
19th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Falcons ranked 20th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Falcons, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Falcons 0.1 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 23rd hardest in the league; what is left is the 9th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
12th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Ravens ranked 16th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Ravens, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Ravens 1.9 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 31st hardest in the league; what is left is the 19th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 11%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
3rd of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Bills ranked 4th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Bills, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Bills 0.2 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 10th hardest in the league; what is left is the 21st hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 16%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
20th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Panthers ranked 23rd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Panthers, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Panthers 1.2 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 13th hardest in the league; what is left is the 15th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
7th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Bears ranked 15th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Bears, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Bears 0.1 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 21st hardest in the league; what is left is the 8th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 10%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
14th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Bengals ranked 25th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Bengals, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Bengals 0.3 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 6th hardest in the league; what is left is the 29th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 2%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
24th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Browns ranked 27th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Browns, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Browns 0.3 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 9th hardest in the league; what is left is the 28th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 2%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
18th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Cowboys ranked 22nd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Cowboys, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Cowboys 0.7 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 28th hardest in the league; what is left is the 20th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
9th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Broncos ranked 6th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Broncos, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Broncos 0.0 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 1st hardest in the league; what is left is the 22nd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 3%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
10th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Lions ranked 8th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Lions, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Lions 0.2 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 16th hardest in the league; what is left is the 31st hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 4%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
22nd of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Packers ranked 9th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Packers, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Packers 0.6 points this week.
And 1 more.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 22nd hardest in the league; what is left is the 4th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
13th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Texans ranked 7th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Texans, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Texans 0.3 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 8th hardest in the league; what is left is the 26th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
17th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Colts ranked 11th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Colts, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Colts 0.2 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 5th hardest in the league; what is left is the 27th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 2%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
2nd of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Jaguars ranked 5th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Jaguars, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Jaguars 0.0 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 14th hardest in the league; what is left is the 30th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 29%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
4th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Chiefs ranked 13th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Chiefs, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Chiefs 0.4 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 30th hardest in the league; what is left is the 6th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 26%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
5th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Rams ranked 1st.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Rams, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Rams 0.6 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 17th hardest in the league; what is left is the 7th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 6%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
23rd of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Chargers ranked 12th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Chargers, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Chargers 1.4 points this week.
And 1 more.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 4th hardest in the league; what is left is the 3rd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
15th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Raiders ranked 30th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Raiders, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Raiders 0.1 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 26th hardest in the league; what is left is the 5th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 2%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
32nd of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Dolphins ranked 28th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Dolphins, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Dolphins 1.4 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 3rd hardest in the league; what is left is the 10th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
8th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Vikings ranked 17th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Vikings, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Vikings 0.2 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 29th hardest in the league; what is left is the 12th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 19%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
11th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Patriots ranked 2nd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Patriots, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Patriots 1.2 points this week.
And 3 more.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 2nd hardest in the league; what is left is the 25th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 5%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
21st of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Saints ranked 21st.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Saints, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Saints 0.7 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 12th hardest in the league; what is left is the 32nd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
31st of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Giants ranked 24th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Giants, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Giants 4.5 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 24th hardest in the league; what is left is the 11th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
28th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Jets ranked 31st.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Jets, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Jets 1.5 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 19th hardest in the league; what is left is the 18th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
27th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Eagles ranked 10th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Eagles, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Eagles 3.7 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 15th hardest in the league; what is left is the 23rd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 2%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
16th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Steelers ranked 18th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Steelers, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Steelers 0.1 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 18th hardest in the league; what is left is the 17th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
1st of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Seahawks ranked 3rd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Seahawks, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Seahawks 0.0 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 27th hardest in the league; what is left is the 2nd hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 20%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
6th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the 49ers ranked 14th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated 49ers, with league rank at the position.
Costing the 49ers 1.1 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 25th hardest in the league; what is left is the 14th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: 34%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
25th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Buccaneers ranked 19th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Buccaneers, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Buccaneers 1.3 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 20th hardest in the league; what is left is the 16th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
29th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Titans ranked 32nd.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Titans, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Titans 0.0 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 32nd hardest in the league; what is left is the 13th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
Points a game against an average team on a neutral field.
30th of 32 this week. On last season's numbers alone the Commanders ranked 26th.
League rank on 2026 statistics through 3 games. Top eight is a strength, bottom eight a weakness.
The model's highest-rated Commanders, with league rank at the position.
Costing the Commanders 4.0 points this week.
13 games left. The schedule so far was the 7th hardest in the league; what is left is the 24th hardest.
Win chances use season ratings without this week's short-term injuries. Top seed in the conference: <1%.
9 of 15 winners so far, level with the market. 15 games is far too few to prove an edge either way: a coin-flipper gets a record like this often. This page exists so the record is public, whatever it turns out to be.
Picks grouped by how confident the model was. The bar is how often those picks won; the marker is how often the model said they would.
A well-calibrated model has each bar ending at its marker. With this few games each group can be off by 20 points or more through luck alone.
The model's record each week against the market's. Open a past week to see every prediction as it stood, with the results.
| Week | Winners | Market | Against the spread | Totals | Brier, model v market | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | 9 of 15 | 9 of 15 | 11 of 13 | 8 of 15 | 0.183 v 0.212 | this week |
The picks that aged best and worst so far.
They won by 5. The model missed the margin by 0.1 points.
Week 4 · JAX 22, CIN 17 ✓The market had the Bengals as favourites. The model gave the Jaguars 67% and they won.
Week 4 · JAX 22, CIN 17 ✓The model's most confident pick that lost. The Patriots won by 3.
Week 4 · NE 29, BUF 26 ✕The model had the Saints by 1.7. The game finished ATL 45, NO 24.
Week 4 · ATL 45, NO 24 ✕The model's pick and confidence, the final score, and whether the pick, its side of the spread and its side of the total were right.
| Game | Model pick | Chance | Final | Pick | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND @ WAS | Colts by 5.8 | 70% | 30–13 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| TEN @ BAL | Ravens by 8.1 | 76% | 18–24 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| NE @ BUF | Bills by 5.4 | 69% | 29–26 | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ |
| NYJ @ CHI | Bears by 10.3 | 82% | 12–23 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| JAX @ CIN | Jaguars by 4.9 | 67% | 22–17 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| DAL @ HOU | Texans by 3.6 | 63% | 34–30 | ✕ | ✕ | ✓ |
| ARI @ NYG | Cardinals by 1.7 | 56% | 24–36 | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ |
| LA @ PHI | Rams by 7.0 | 73% | 24–20 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| GB @ TB | Buccaneers by 1.0 | 54% | 17–14 | ✕ | push | ✓ |
| MIA @ MIN | Vikings by 11.9 | 85% | 10–15 | ✓ | ✕ | ✓ |
| KC @ LV | Chiefs by 3.6 | 63% | 30–27 | ✓ | ✓ | ✕ |
| LAC @ SEA | Seahawks by 11.0 | 83% | 23–30 | ✓ | push | ✕ |
| DEN @ SF | 49ers by 4.7 | 66% | 14–24 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| DET @ CAR | Lions by 1.1 | 54% | 26–32 | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ |
| ATL @ NO | Saints by 1.7 | 56% | 45–24 | ✕ | ✓ | ✕ |
Predictions are fixed before kick-off from the final injury reports. "Spread" and "Total" compare the model's side with the market line at the time.